WHERE DOES THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA REAL ESTATE MARKET STAND? HOW DID 2011 COMPARE TO 2010?

Earlier this month, our CEO Terry Belt shared his forecast for the 2012 market. (You can read about what’s in store for Northern Virginia here.) But how did we finish 2011 in comparison to 2010? Let’s take a look at the numbers. Instead of doing an analysis on the market as a whole, let’s break it down a little. As we know, real estate is local. So we selected 9 sample markets to analyze: Vienna, Oakton, McLean, Great Falls, Reston, Fairfax, Herndon, Falls Church & Arlington. Let’s see how things shook out:

Northern Virginia Real Estate Stats from The Belt Team

So – what do we conclude from all these stats?

In every area listed, sales are down. This is a fact that has been trumpeted throughout the press. “Home Sales Dropping” is the typical Doomsday headline. If you don’t look at ALL the information and just read the headline, you might conclude that this is a bad thing. But let’s keep looking.

What we also see in the statistics above is that in 7 out of 9 areas, the average home price ROSE. In the lower priced areas – we saw the average price rise as much as 7.8% in just one year. It seems the market has not only “bottomed out” in these areas, but has turned back up.

Only 2 areas (McLean & Great Falls) did not see prices rise. However, these 2 areas did see a rise in the average sales price as compared to original list price. This may signal that we are approaching bottom there. The “luxury” markets typically trend just a bit behind the more affordable markets. But as the affordable markets have turned, so the luxury markets usually follow.

So – now you know what prices are doing. But are we in a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?

In this case, let’s take a look at an overall analysis of the DC Region. If we compare the inventory level at the end of December 2011 to December 2010, here’s what we find:

  • Single Family Home Inventory: DOWN 18.5%
  • Townhome Inventory: DOWN 30%
  • Condominium Inventory: DOWN 29.1%

This puts our region in general at a 5-6 month supply of homes – trypically considered neither a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market – but a Balanced Market. However, it’s important to note that there are places in Northern Virginia where housing supply is closer to 3-4 months and this puts those markets closer to a Seller’s Market. So if you’re reading this and thinking about buying or selling, call us at (703-242-3975). We’ll do a much more detailed analysis specific to your city, home type, price range, school district, etc.

If you are looking for an advocate to help you navigate & negotiate in TODAY’s market, email The Belt Team or call us at (703) 242-3975. Call now to schedule a Buyer or Seller consultation, to request a FREE WRITTEN REPORT of your home’s value or to be put on our FREE PRIORITY NOTIFICATION LIST for special buying opportunities that are not in the MLS or on the Internet. You can’t afford not to. (Find out why you don’t want to miss out on “The Belt Team Experience“!)

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